I’ve read a lot of articles lately about Sarah Palin and her chances at the Republican nomination and then at the presidency in 2012. My opinion on this matter is that we’re still more than two years away from the election can we please stop worrying about it for two seconds and maybe focus on the actual problems our country is facing?
In truth, I know my opinion, as simple and common sense as it may seem, is completely and utterly ridiculous. After all this is America and politics is a business. We are the land of the never ending campaign, where the presidency is a billion dollar commodity and we have the best paid, best trained bullshit peddlers in the world (there are two areas in which America is still light years ahead of the rest of the world: military budget and bullshit – although, I guess we should really include debt and imprisoning our own citizens).
So my protestations on even discussing the topic be what they are, I will throw in my two cents about Ms. Palin’s chances at the presidency. Those who say she has no shot point to he high negatives, especially among women, and the concept that cooler, smarter heads will prevail from the elite of the Republican party. Those who say don’t count her out point to the shrinking, whitening, and southerning of the Republican party and the Tea Party. Ultimately the GOP is getting smaller and more fuckwad crazy conservative so Palin is right up their ally.
So, I guess ultimately the discussion is really about her chances to be the Republican nominee and lose to Obama rather than the race for the actual presidency. Most likely because anyone who’s nerdy enough to be looking at an election more than two years out recognizes Obama’s ridiculously high numbers, his incredibly professional and talented election team, and most importantly that he’s the incumbent and Americans vote for the incumbent. Also, he’s taller, which is another thing Americans vote for. Go Democracy!
Here’s where I stand on Sarah Palin’s chances to be the 2012 Republican nominee for President of the United States of America: I have no fucking clue. Are you kidding me? We’re over two years away. If we could tell who was going to win from this far out the 2008 election would have been between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Making a prediction now is like predicting what team’s going to win the Super Bowl two years from now. Completely useless.
I think Rudy Giuliani is in many ways a perfect example. He was leading in all the polls and practically guaranteed the nomination way before the primaries started. He had great fund-raising, but he was also a complete charlatan. He was a disaster as a mayor of New York (a title that doesn’t often lead to national prominence, much like Governor of Alaska), but grandstanded on having been in the vicinity of the attacks of 9/11 (another thing he completely mishandled, but hoped if he said 9/11 enough times no one would recognize that). He was a political celebrity with thinning hair and thinner intellect. Ultimately, he was doomed by his own incompetence.
I’m not going to sit here in July 2010 and say Sarah Palin won’t win her parties nomination in 2012, but I’m not going to underestimate her incompetence either. There are too many things that could happen and will happen between now and the actual voting that will completely alter the political landscape and our views of the candidates. So let’s stop worrying about the lady who played the mom in Bobby’s World gaining any actual power because it’s not even a possibility for another two years.
Let’s worry a little more about passing a certain proposition out in California, and deal with 2012 when it gets her. We have a lot of work to do before then.